Bears, Resistance, and Supply
As we have stated, the movement of financial markets is simply the
continual unfolding of the battle between bulls and bears. Bulls, or
buyers, are trying to push price up, and bears, or sellers, are trying
to push price down. When the bulls are in control of the market,
they are pushing price up, but at some point, price will find
resistance. Resistance is when enough sellers come into the market in
order to fight off the bulls. At this point sellers begin to push price
back down. When price is rising in t, buyers are in complete
control of the market. When price gets up to a certain level, all of a
sudden buyers are exhausted. They cannot push price any higher. There
are enough sellers at that price level, that pressure is put on the
bulls, and the bears begin to push price
back down. This means that supply has come into the market in heavy
fashion. At the top of the price curve, there is a substantial supply
of this currency pair, and there is not enough demand to absorb the
excess supply. Therefore, price falls. Bulls, Support, and Demand
In the most common scenario, sellers are in complete control of the
market as price falls to the equilibrium. When price comes to the
equilibrium, all of a sudden bulls, or buyers, come into the market with
substantial demand for the currency. All of a sudden, there is more
demand for the currency pair than there is supply of it in trading, so
price begins to rise nicely, and the bulls take control of the market.
This battle between bulls and bears never stops. Identifying price
movement as a battle between bulls and bears helps in understanding the
market psychology that is driving price movement. The key to swing
trading is being able to identify when the bulls are about to lose
momentum and the bears are going to take over. If you are able to
identify these a specific price level on the chart where you believe
bears are about to be in control of price, then you will be entering a
short position. Conversely, if you are able to identify price levels
where the bulls are about to take control of the market, you would
enter a long order. This basic economic principle of supply and demand
is what drives currency prices.
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